12 October, 2000

 

Dr. Agusti Jansa

Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia
Centro Meteorologico Territorial a les Illes Balears
Molls de Poniente s/n
E-07071 Palma de Mallorca
Spain

 

Dear Dr. Jansa:

The 3rd Session of the World Weather Research Programme Science Steering Committee was held in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada from 7 to 12 September 2000. The Committee discussed 10 ongoing or developing projects, sponsored workshops and conferences, and other matters related to weather prediction. Attached, please find a resolution of the Committee pertaining to MEDEX.

The Committee was nearly unanimous in its support to endorse research related to high impact weather prediction in the Mediterranean region. We believe that MEDEX is now adequately prepared for a limited range of activities in pursuit of these objectives. Therefore, the attached resolution authorizes MEDEX to pursue the first steps as a "Phase I" MEDEX. As MEDEX research progresses, and subject to additional review and consultation, it may then be possible to better define the later stages of research similar to the intentions that are described in your preliminary proposal.

On behalf of the Committee, thank you for your interest and participation in the WWRP. If the Committee can be of further assistance to you, we will be most pleased to accommodate your request to the extent possible.

My best regards to you and your colleagues.

c: SSC

Enclosures: Resolution, SSC Membership list


12 October 2000

Resolution: Mediterranean Experiment (MEDEX)

The SSC was pleased to receive a revised MEDEX proposal that was responsive to many of its earlier concerns.

The proposed program, while lacking in specificity at this stage, provides a starting point in the development of the in-depth understanding that will be required to generate improved forecasts of the high impact weather often associated with Mediterranean cyclones.

The MEDEX proposal was approved as a WWRP Research and Development Project (RDP) with authorization to plan and conduct priority tasks associated with the early stages of research as follows:

  1. Identify the nature, availability, and usefulness of data presently not available on the GTS, and to start concentrating these data in a MEDEX data base.
  2. Identify a set of cases where high impact weather was poorly forecast and conduct coordinated, in-depth case studies that include considerations of forecast skill and societal impacts associated with both the event and the poor forecasts.
  3. Conduct NWP studies to identify sensitive areas where the addition of observations would most likely lead to improved forecasts and their related benefits.
  4. Conduct research to identify physical and dynamical hypotheses that might form the basis of developing improved forecast techniques for Mediterranean cyclones.

The above four items are to be accomplished over the next two to three years in order to define a subsequent phase of the project. Plans could then be submitted which might include, for example, a field project with increased observations, intensified efforts in data assimilation, and/or new model parameterizations, to confirm the hypotheses previously developed as to how the forecasts of high impact weather might be improved.

The MEDEX Science Steering Committee is requested to submit a Science Plan, in accordance with the WWRP proforma, that provides a specific description of elements c) and d) above. We are hopeful, during the coming year, that MEDEX can proceed, forthwith, on elements a) and b) above and provide a progress report along with the Science Plan at the WWRP/SSC 4th Session in Geneva, October 2001